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Keywords: Currently, the Earth System is on a Hothouse Earth pathway driven by human emissions of greenhouse gases and biosphere degradation toward a planetary threshold at ∼2 °C (horizontal broken line at 2 °C in Fig. Epub 2020 Oct 2. Widespread, rapid, and fundamental transformations will likely be required to reduce the risk of crossing the threshold and locking in the Hothouse Earth pathway; these include changes in behavior, technology and innovation, governance, and values (48, 62, 63). 2020;7(1):56. doi: 10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8. Steffen W, Rockström J, Richardson K, Lenton TM, Folke C, Liverman D, Summerhayes CP, Barnosky AD, Cornell SE, Crucifix M. 2018. If Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt in the future, the freshening and cooling of nearby surface waters will have significant effects on the ocean circulation. [8] Will Steffen et al., “Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene,” 8252-59. Researchers want to mimic animal impulses using chaotic dynamics, eventually in robots. 1). were supported by Leibniz Association Project DOMINOES. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. This variability was often much more pronounced than global, longer-term Holocene variability (SI Appendix). In August 2018, leading Anthropocene scientists wrote: “different societies around the world have contributed differently and unequally to pressures on the Earth System and will have varied capabilities to alter future trajectories.” Global analysis of river systems: from Earth system controls to Anthropocene syndromes. Stability landscape showing the pathway of the Earth System out of the Holocene and thus, out of the glacial–interglacial limit cycle to its present position in the hotter Anthropocene. The other pathway leads to Stabilized Earth, a pathway of Earth System stewardship guided by human-created feedbacks to a quasistable, human-maintained basin of attraction. 2015 Canberra Conference on Earth System Governance, ‘Democracy and Resilience in the Anthropocene’, Australian National University, 14-16 December 2015. S.E.C. Enhanced ambition will need new collectively shared values, principles, and frameworks as well as education to support such changes (67, 68). NIH J.F.D. For example, delays in permafrost thawing would most likely delay the projected northward migration of boreal forests (30), while warming of the southern areas of these forests could result in their conversion to steppe grasslands of significantly lower carbon storage capacity. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Steffen W, Broadgate W, Deutsch L, Gaffney O, Ludwig C. The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The great acceleration. 1 shows a simplified representation of complex Earth System dynamics, where the physical climate system is subjected to the effects of slow changes in Earth’s orbit and inclination. Economy; BRICS Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/. Stability landscape showing the pathway of the Earth System out of the Holocene and thus, out of the glacial–interglacial limit cycle to its present position in the hotter Anthropocene. A Hothouse Earth trajectory would almost certainly flood deltaic environments, increase the risk of damage from coastal storms, and eliminate coral reefs (and all of the benefits that they provide for societies) by the end of this century or earlier (58). 2. Donges JF, et al. A few of the feedbacks do not have apparent thresholds (e.g., change in the land and ocean physiological carbon sinks, such as increasing carbon uptake due to the CO2 fertilization effect or decreasing uptake due to a decrease in rainfall). Climate; Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Available at, Ice plug prevents irreversible discharge from East Antarctica, Southern Ocean warming delayed by circumpolar upwelling and equatorward transport, A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw, Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years, Heinrich events: Massive late Pleistocene detritus layers of the North Atlantic and their global climate imprint, Link between ocean temperature and iceberg discharge during Heinrich events, Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes, Decadal fingerprints of freshwater discharge around Greenland in a multi-model ensemble, Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries, Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses, How did the 2012 drought affect rural livelihoods in vulnerable areas? Glob Environ Change. Fig. Avoiding this threshold by creating a Stabilized Earth pathway can only be achieved and maintained by a coordinated, deliberate effort by human societies to manage our relationship with the rest of the Earth System, recognizing that humanity is an integral, interacting component of the system. S.E.C. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene 著者 dWill Ste en a;b;1 , Johan Rockstr om a , Katherine Richardson c , Timothy M. Lenton , Carl Folke a;e , Diana Liverman f , Colin P. Summerhayes g , Anthony D. Barnosky h , Sarah E. Cornell a , While the probability of significant circulation changes is difficult to quantify, climate model simulations suggest that freshwater inputs compatible with current rates of Greenland melting are sufficient to have measurable effects on ocean temperature and circulation (46, 47). Anthropocene; Earth System trajectories; biosphere feedbacks; climate change; tipping elements. 1 is shown here as the two divergent pathways of the Earth System in the future (broken arrows). 1 is shown here as the two divergent pathways of the Earth System in the future (broken arrows). 1 is shown here as the two divergent pathways of the Earth System in the future (broken arrows).

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